assignment v16

course

?n????????~??€?assignment #016

016. mean, std dev of freq dist (incl binomial)

Liberal Arts Mathematics II

04-22-2009

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12:04:31

`q001. Note that there are 8 questions in this assignment.

{}{}When rolling 2 dice a number of times, suppose you get a total of 5 on four different rolls, a total of 6 on seven rolls, a total of 7 on nine rolls, and total of 8 of six rolls a total of 9 on three rolls. What was your mean total per roll of the two dice?

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RESPONSE -->

5 5 5 5

6 6 6 6 6 6 6

7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7

8 8 8 8 8 8

9 9 9

add these together =200 then divide by 29 =6.9

confidence assessment: 2

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12:04:47

You obtained four 5's, which total 4 * 5 = 20.

You obtained seven 6's, which total 7 * 6 = 42.

You obtained nine 7's, which total 9 * 7 = 63.

You obtained six 8's, which total 6 * 8 = 48.

You obtained three 9's, which total 3 * 9 = 27.

The total of all the outcomes is therefore 20 + 42 + 63 + 48 + 27 = 200. Since there are 4 + 7 + 9 + 6 + 3 = 29 outcomes (i.e., four outcomes of 5 plus 7 outcomes of 6, etc.), the mean is therefore 200/29 = 6.7, approximately.

This series of calculations can be summarized in a table as follows:

Result Frequency Result * frequency

5 4 20

6 7 42

7 9 63

8 6 48

9 3 27

9 3 27

___ ____ ____

29 200

mean = 200 / 29 = 6.7

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self critique assessment: 3

You did this by listing the four 5's, the seven 6's, etc., and adding them.

Do you understand how this is the same as adding the result * frequency products, as done here?

If you don't understand this, you will experience difficulties with the subsequent questions.

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12:41:15

`q002. The preceding problem could have been expressed in the following table:

Total Number of Occurrences

5 4

6 7

7 9

8 6

9 3

This table is called a frequency distribution. It expresses each possible result and the number of times each occurs.

You found the mean 6.7 of this frequency distribution in the preceding problem. Now find the standard deviation of the distribution.

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RESPONSE -->

the mean is 6.8

subtract the difference so

1.8 3.24

.8 .64

1.8 3.24

2.8 7.84

3.8 then square 14.44

square first and last 3.24=10.5 14.44=208.5

3.24 already represents a squared deviation. You wouldn't square it again.

Similarly the 14.44 wouldn't be squared.

add then divide 10.5+.64+3.24+7.84+208.5/29

230/29=7.95 then take square root=2.82

confidence assessment: 2

Your solution does not account for the number of times each total occurred.

The deviation 1.8 occurs four times, so the squared deviation 3.24 needs to be included four times.

The squared deviation .64 would be included seven times.

etc..

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12:50:50

We must calculate the square root of the 'average' of the squared deviation. We calculate the deviation of each result from the mean, then find the squared deviation. To find the total of the squared deviations we must add each squared deviation the number of times which is equal to the number of times the corresponding result occurs.

For example, the first result is 5 and it occurs four times. Since the deviation of 5 from the mean 6.7 is 1.7, the squared deviation is 1.7^2 = 2.89. Since 5 occurs four times, the squared deviation 2.89 occurs four times, contributing 4 * 2.89 = 11.6 to the total of the squared deviations.

Using a table in the manner of the preceding exercise we obtain

Result Freq Result * freq Dev Sq Dev Sq Dev * freq

5 4 20 1.7 2.89 11.6

6 7 42 .7 0.49 3.4

7 9 63 0.3 0.09 0.6

8 6 48 1.3 1.69 10.2

9 3 27 2.3 5.29 15.9

___ ____ ____ ___

29 200 41.7

mean = 200 / 29 = 6.7

'ave' squared deviation = 41.7 / (29 - 1) = 1.49

std dev = `sqrt(1.49) = 1.22

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RESPONSE -->

I think that I understand you find the mean first then subtract the mean and total to find the deviation then sadd them then divide this sum by n-1 which would be the number of occurrences-1. finally take the squared root of this and you have the standsard deviationquare the deviation on each. take the squared deviation and

self critique assessment: 2

It's not clear that you understand why the squared deviation is multiplied by the frequency; my previous notes should help you understand this.

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13:09:08

`q003. If four coins are flipped, the possible numbers of 'heads' are 0, 1, 2, 3, 4. Suppose that in an experiment we obtain the following frequency distribution:

# Heads Number of Occurrences

0 4

1 20

2 22

3 13

4 3

What is the mean number of 'heads' and what is the standard deviation of the number of heads from this mean?

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RESPONSE -->

0+1+2+3+4/62=10/62=.16

deviation .16 squared .03 sum=26.94

.84 .70

1.84 3.39

2.84 8.07

3.84 14.75

26.94/61=.44 square root 44= .66

confidence assessment: 2

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13:10:37

Using the table in the manner of the preceding problem we obtain the following:

Result Freq Result * freq Dev Sq Dev Sq Dev * freq

0 4 0 1.86 3.5 0

1 20 20 0.86 0.7 14

2 22 44 0.24 0.1 2

3 13 39 1.24 1.5 20

4 3 12 2.24 5.0 15

___ ____ ____ ___

62 115 51

mean = 115 / 62 = 1.86 approx. Note that the mean must be calculated before the Dev column is filled in.

'ave' squared deviation = 51 / 62 = .83

std dev = `sqrt(.83) = .91

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RESPONSE -->

i dont understand this one how did you get the mean this way?

This follows the procedures outlined in previous questions, and amplified by the notes I've added.

self critique assessment:

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13:26:53

`q004. If we rolled 2 dice 36 times we would expect the following distribution of totals:

Total Number of Occurrences

2 1

3 2

4 3

5 4

6 5

7 6

8 5

9 4

10 3

11 2

12 1

What is the mean of this distribution and what is the standard deviation?

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RESPONSE -->

2+3+4+5+6+7+8+9+10+11/36 = 1.8

deviation .8 squared .64

.2 .04

1.2 1.44

2.2 4.84

3.2 10.24

4.2 17.64

3.2 10.24

2.2 4.84

1.2 1.44

.2 .04

sum of deviation squared 51.4

51.4/36-1= 51.4/35=1.47

square root 1.47=1.21

confidence assessment: 1

You haven't accounted for the number of occurrences. My previous notes should help you clarify this.

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13:28:32

Using the table in the manner of the preceding problem we obtain the following:

Result Freq Result * freq Dev Sq Dev Sq Dev * freq

2 1 2 5 25 25

3 2 6 4 16 32

4 3 12 3 9 37

5 4 20 2 4 16

6 5 30 1 1 5

7 6 42 0 0 0

8 5 40 1 1 5

9 4 36 2 4 16

10 3 30 3 9 27

11 2 22 4 16 32

12 1 12 5 25 25

___ ____ ____ ___

36 252 230

mean = 252 / 36 = 7. Note that the mean must be calculated before the Dev column is filled in.

'ave' squared deviation = 230 / 36 = 6.4 approx.

std dev = `sqrt(6.4) = 2.5 approx.

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RESPONSE -->

Help I dont understand what am I doing wrong?

self critique assessment:

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13:44:43

`q005. If we flip n coins, there are C(n, r) ways in which we can get r 'heads' and 2^n possible outcomes. The probability of r 'heads' is therefore C(n, r) / 2^n. If we flip five coins, what is the probability of 0 'heads', of 1 'head', of 2 'heads', of 3 'heads', of 4 'heads', and of 5 'heads'?

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RESPONSE -->

C(n,r)/2^n

C(5,r)/2^5 C(5,0)/2^5 5*4*3*2*1/5*4*3*2*1=1

1/2^5=1/32

C(5,1)/2^5= 5*4*3*2*1/1*4*3*2*1= 5

5/32

C(5,2)2^5=5*4*3*2*1/2*1*3*2*1= 5*4/2=20/2=10

10/32=5/16

C(5,3)2^5= 5*4*3*2*1/3*2*1*2*1= 20/2=10 10/32=5/16

C(5,4)2^5= 5*4*3*2*1/4*3*2*1*1= 5/1=5 5/32

C(5,5)2^5= 5*4*3*2*1/5*4*3*2*1=1 1/32

confidence assessment: 2

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13:45:17

If we flip 5 coins, then n = 5.

To get 0 'heads' we find C(n, r) with n = 5 and r = 0, obtaining C(5,0) = 1 way to get 0 'heads' out of the 2^5 = 32 possibilities for a probability of 1 / 32.

To get 1 'heads' we find C(n, r) with n = 5 and r = 1, obtaining C(5,1) = 5 ways to get 1 'heads' out of the 2^5 = 32 possibilities for a probability of 5 / 32.

To get 2 'heads' we find C(n, r) with n = 5 and r = 2, obtaining C(5,2) = 10 ways to get 2 'heads' out of the 2^5 = 32 possibilities for a probability of 10 / 32.

To get 3 'heads' we find C(n, r) with n = 5 and r = 3, obtaining C(5,3) = 10 ways to get 3 'heads' out of the 2^5 = 32 possibilities for a probability of 10 / 32.

To get 4 'heads' we find C(n, r) with n = 5 and r = 4, obtaining C(5,4) = 5 ways to get 4 'heads' out of the 2^5 = 32 possibilities for a probability of 5 / 32.

To get 5 'heads' we find C(n, r) with n = 5 and r = 5, obtaining C(5,5) = 1 way to get 5 'heads' out of the 2^5 = 32 possibilities for a probability of 1 / 32.

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self critique assessment: 3

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14:00:47

`q006. The preceding problem yielded probabilities 1/32, 5/32, 10/32, 10/32, 5/32 and 1/32. On 5 flips, then, we the expected values of the different numbers of 'heads' would give us the following distribution: :

# Heads Number of Occurrences

0 1

1 5

2 10

3 10

4 5

5 1

Find the mean and standard deviation of this distribution.

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RESPONSE -->

0+5+20+30+20+5=80

80/32=2.5

deviation 1.5 squared 2.25 sum 129.5

2.5 6.25

7.5 56.25 129.5/31

7.5 56.25 =4.17

2.5 6.25

1.5 2.25 squared root

4.17=2.04

confidence assessment: 1

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14:13:30

Using the table in the manner of the preceding problem we obtain the following:

Result Freq Result * freq Dev Sq Dev Sq Dev * freq

0 1 0 2.5 6.25 6.25

1 5 5 1.5 2.25 11.25

2 10 20 0.5 0.25 2.50

3 10 30 0.5 0.25 2.50

4 5 20 1.5 2.25 12.25

5 1 5 2.5 6.25 6.25

___ ____ ____ ___

32 80 32.00

mean = 80 / 32 = 2.5. Note that the mean must be calculated before the Dev column is filled in.

'ave' squared deviation = 40 / 32 = 1.25.

Thus std dev = `sqrt(1.25) = 1.12 approx.

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RESPONSE -->

self critique assessment:

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14:26:43

`q007. Suppose that p is the probability of success and q the probability of failure on a coin flip, on a roll of a die, or on any other action that must either succeed or fail. If a trial consists of that action repeated n times, then the average number of successes on a large number of trials is expected to be n * p. For large values of n, the standard deviation of the number of successes is expected to be very close to `sqrt( n * p * q ). For values of n which are small but not too small, the standard deviation will still be close to this number but not as close as for large n.

If the action is a coin flip and 'success' is defined as 'heads', then what is the value of p and what is the value of q?

For this interpretation in terms of coin flips, if n = 5 then what is n * p and what does it mean to say that the average number of successes will be n * p?

In terms of the same interpretation, what is the value of `sqrt(n * p * q) and what does it mean to say that the standard deviation of the number of successes will be `sqrt( n * p * q)?

How does this result compare with the result you obtained on the preceding problem?

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RESPONSE -->

if you are tossing a coin and success is heads then p is heads q is tails

n is the number of flips n=5 flips 5*p is you got heads 5 times

(flips* heads*tails ) square root is the standard deviation of the number of success

I have no idea what I am doing

confidence assessment:

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14:28:39

We first identify the quantities p and q for a coin flip. Success is 'heads', which for a fair coin occurs with probability .5. Failure therefore has probability 1 - .5 = .5.

Now if n = 5, n * p = 5 * .5 = 2.5, which represents the mean number of 'heads' on 5 flips. The idea that the mean number of occurrences of some outcome with probability p in n repetitions is n * p should by now be familiar (e.g., from basic probability and from the idea of expected values).

For n = 5, we have `sqrt(n * p * q) = `sqrt(5 * .5 * .5) = `sqrt(1.25) = 1.12, approx..

In the preceding problem we found that the standard deviation expected on five flips of a coin should be exactly 1. This differs from the estimate `sqrt(n * p * q) by a little over 10%, which is a fairly small difference.

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self critique assessment:

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14:32:34

`q008. Suppose that p is the probability of success and q the probability of failure on a coin flip, on a roll of a die, or on any other action that must either succeed or fail. If a trial consists of that action repeated n times, then the average number of successes on a large number of trials is expected to be n * p. The standard deviation of the number of successes is expected to be `sqrt( n * p * q ).

If the action is a roll of a single die and a success is defined as rolling a 6, then what is the probability of a success and what is the probability of a failure?

If n = 12 that means that we count the number of 6's rolled in 12 consecutive rolls of the die, or alternatively that we count the number of 6's when 12 dice are rolled. How many 6's do we expect to roll on an average roll of 12 dice? What do we expect is the standard deviation the number of 6's on rolls of 12 dice?

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RESPONSE -->

12*6*5=360

12 is rolls 6 is success there are 5 that are not success 1,2,3,4,5 is not what you want

square root of 360=18.9

confidence assessment: 1

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14:33:00

We first identify the quantities p and q for a rolling a die. Success is defined in this problem as getting a 6, which for a fair die occurs with probability 1/6. Failure therefore has probability 1 - 1/6 = 5/6.

Now if n = 12, n * p = 12 * 1/6 = 2, which represents the mean number of 6's expected on 12 rolls. This is the result we would expect.

For n = 12, we have `sqrt(n * p * q) = `sqrt(12 * 1/6 * 5/6) = `sqrt(1.66) = 1.3, approx..

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self critique assessment:

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You are very close, but you aren't seeing the point about the number of occurrences of each result. I've inserted a number of notes. Submit a copy of this document and insert additional attempts at solutions, questions, etc.; mark your insertions by &&&& so I can distinguish them from the rest of the document.