course 
Melissa McelhenyWhen submitting your work electronically, show the details of your work and give a good verbal description of your graphs.
One very important goal of the course is to learn to communicate mathematical thinking and logical reasoning.  If you can effectively communicate mathematics, you will be able to effectively communicate a wide range of important ideas, which is extremely valuable in your further education and in your career.	
When writing out solutions, self-document.   That is, write your solution so it can be read without reference by the reader to the problem statement.  Use specific and descriptive   statements like the following: 	
	
Using the depth vs. clock time data points (0, 13), (3, 12), (10,10), (25,8), (35, 6), (52, 3), (81, 1), we obtain a model as follows . . . 	
Using the depth vs. clock time data points (3, 12), (25, 8) and (52,3) we obtain the system of equations . . . 	
From the parameters a = -1.3, b = 12 and c = 15 we obtain the function . . . 	
Comparing the predicted depths at clock times t = 0, 3, 10, 25, 35, 52, 81 with the observed depths we see that . . . 	
Here are some data for the temperature of a hot potato vs. time:	
	
Time (minutes)	Temperature (Celsius)
0	108							
17	108						Sum of Temperature (Celsius)	
34	87.90224						Time (minutes)	Total
51	79.75957						0	108
68	72.67098						17	108
85	66.5						34	87.90224
102	61.12785						51	79.75957
119	56.45112						68	72.67098
							85	66.5
Graph these data below, using an appropriate scale:							102	61.12785
							119	56.45112
								
								
								
								
								
Pick three representative points and circle them.					(17 and 108), (85 and 66.5), (119 and 56.45112)		
Write the equations that result from the assumption that the appropriate mathematical model is a quadratic function y = a t^2 + b t + c.							
	108 = a(17)^2 + b(17) + c						
	66.5= a(85)^2 + b(85) + c						
	56.45112=a(119)^2 + b(119) + c						
							
Eliminate c from your equations to obtain two equations in a and b.							
	108= 289a + 17 b + c				108= 289a + 17 b + c		66.5 = 7225a +85b +c
	66.5 = 7225a +85b +c				-66.5 = -7225a -85b -c		-56.45112 = -14161a - 119b- c
	56.45112 = 14161a + 119b + c				41.5 = -6936a - 68b		10.04888 = -6936a -34b
Solve for a and b.							
	41.5 = -6936a - 68b		10.04888 = -6936a -34b			41.5 = -6936a - 68b	
	1411 = -235824a -2312b					41.5 = -6936(.003086) - 68b	
	-683.32384 = 471648a - 2312b					41.5 = -21.404496 - 68b	
	727.68616 = 235824a					62.904496 = -68b	
	a = .003086					b= -.92507	
							
		108 = 289(.003086) + 17 (-.92507) + c				108 = .891854 - 15.72619 + c	
		122.834336 = c					
Write the resulting model for temperature vs. time.							
							
	y = .003086t^2 -.92507t + 122.834336						
							
Make a table for this function:			
			
Time (minutes)	Model Function's Prediction of Temperature		
0	122.8		
17	107.9		y = .003086(17)^2 - .92507(17) +122.8
34	94.9		y = .003086(34)^2 - .92507(34) +122.8
51	83.6		y = .003086(51)^2 - .92507(51) +122.8
68	74.2		y = .003086(68)^2 - .92507(68) +122.8
85	66.5		y = .003086(85)^2 - .92507(85) +122.8
102	60.5		y = .003086(102)^2 - .92507(102) +122.8
119	56.4		y = .003086(119)^2 - .92507(119) +122.8
Sketch a smooth curve representing this function on your graph.			
Expand your table to include the original temperatures and the deviations of the model function for each time:			
			
Time (minutes)	Temperature (Celsius)	Prediction of Model	Deviation of Observed Temperature from Model
0	108	122.8	-14.8
17	97.2557	107.9	-10.6443
34	87.90224	94.9	-6.99776
51	79.75957	83.6	-3.84043
68	72.67098	74.2	-1.52902
85	66.5	66.5	0
102	61.12785	60.5	0.62785
119	56.45112	56.4	0.05112
Find the average of the deviations.			
		-37.13254	divided by 8 = -4.6415675
1.  If you have not already done so, obtain your own set of flow depth vs. time data as instructed in the Flow Experiment (either perform the experiment, as recommended, or E-mail the instructor for a set of data).  			
Complete the modeling process for your own flow depth vs. time data. 				
				
Use your model to predict depth when clock time is 46 seconds, and the clock time when the water depth first reaches 14 centimeters. 				
				
Comment on whether the model fits the data well or not.				
2.  Follow the complete modeling procedure for the two data sets below, using a quadratic model for each.  Note that your results might not be as good as with the flow model.  It is even possible that at least one of these data sets cannot be fit by a quadratic model.				
				
Data Set 1				
				
In a study of precalculus students, average grades were compared with the percent of classes in which the students took and reviewed class notes. The results were as follows:				
				
Percent of Assignments Reviewed	Grade Average			Model
0	1.014738	1.03518		y= -.000166t^2 + .03946t + 1.03518
10	1.408518	1.41318		
20	1.756831	1.75798		3 = -.000166t^2 + .03946t + 1.03518
30	2.064929	2.06958				
40	2.337454	2.34798				
50	2.578513	2.59318				
60	2.79174	2.80518				
70	2.980347	2.98398				
80	3.147178	3.12958				
90	3.294747	3.24198				
100	3.425278	3.32118				
						
Determine from your model the percent of classes reviewed to achieve grades of 3.0 and 4.0.						
		3 = -.000166t^2 + .03946t + 1.03518				4 = -.000166t^2 + .03946t + 1.03518
		0 = -.000166t^2 + .03946t -1.96482				0 = -.000166t^2 + .03946t -2.96482
		x=71				negative sign under the square root and not possible.
Determine also the projected grade for someone who reviews notes for 80% of the classes.						
		y= -.000166t^2 + .03946t + 1.03518				
		y= -.000166(80)^2 + .03946(80) + 1.03518				
		y=3.12958					
							
Comment on how well the model fits the data.  The model may fit or it may not.							The model fits the data, not too much deviation
							
Comment on whether or not the actual curve would look like the one you obtained, for a real class of real students.							
							there is a good possibilty.
Data Set 2							
							
The following data represent the illumination of a comet by a certain star, reasonably similar to our Sun, at various distances from the star:     							
							
Distance from Star (AU)	Illumination of Comet (W/m^2)						
1	1470		y=at^2 + bt + c				
2	367.5						
3	163.3333		y = a(1)^2 + b(1) + c		y = a(5)^2 + b(5) + c		y = a(10)^2 + b(10) + c
4	91.875		1470 = a + b + c		58.8 = 25a + 5b + c		14.7 = 100a + 10b + c
5	58.8						
6	40.83333		-1411.2 =24a+ 4b			
7	30		-44.1=75a+5b			
8	22.96875		38.22 = a			
9	18.14815		582.12 = b			
10	14.7		849.66 = c			
						
Obtain a model.		y= 38.22t^2 - 582.12t + 2013.90				
						
Determine from your model what illumination would be expected at 1.6 AU from the star.						
		y= 38.22t^2 - 582.12t + 2013.90				
		y= 38.22(1.6)^2 - 582.12(1.6) + 2013.90				
		y=1180.35				
At what range of distances from the star would the illumination be comfortable for reading, if reading comfort occurs in the range from 25 to 100 Watts per square meter?						
		y= 38.22t^2 - 582.12t + 2013.90				y= 38.22t^2 - 582.12t + 2013.90
		25= 38.22t^2 - 582.12t + 2013.90				100= 38.22t^2 - 582.12t + 2013.90
		0=38.22t^2 - 582.12 + 1988.90				0=38.22t^2 - 582.12t + 1913.90
		y = 10.0558				y = 10.429
Analyze how well your model fits the data and give your conclusion.  The model might fit, and it might not.  You determine whether it does or doesn't.						
	The model does not fit . The equations do not work with every number and as the range gets larger the AU should get					
	smaller, not larger.					
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Your work here looks very good.  Let me know if you have questions.