randomized problem

course

Melissa McelhenyWhen submitting your work electronically, show the details of your work and give a good verbal description of your graphs.

One very important goal of the course is to learn to communicate mathematical thinking and logical reasoning.  If you can effectively communicate mathematics, you will be able to effectively communicate a wide range of important ideas, which is extremely valuable in your further education and in your career.

When writing out solutions, self-document.   That is, write your solution so it can be read without reference by the reader to the problem statement.  Use specific and descriptive   statements like the following:

Using the depth vs. clock time data points (0, 13), (3, 12), (10,10), (25,8), (35, 6), (52, 3), (81, 1), we obtain a model as follows . . .

Using the depth vs. clock time data points (3, 12), (25, 8) and (52,3) we obtain the system of equations . . .

From the parameters a = -1.3, b = 12 and c = 15 we obtain the function . . .

Comparing the predicted depths at clock times t = 0, 3, 10, 25, 35, 52, 81 with the observed depths we see that . . .

Here are some data for the temperature of a hot potato vs. time:

Time (minutes) Temperature (Celsius)

0 108

17 108 Sum of Temperature (Celsius)

34 87.90224 Time (minutes) Total

51 79.75957 0 108

68 72.67098 17 108

85 66.5 34 87.90224

102 61.12785 51 79.75957

119 56.45112 68 72.67098

85 66.5

Graph these data below, using an appropriate scale: 102 61.12785

119 56.45112

Pick three representative points and circle them. (17 and 108), (85 and 66.5), (119 and 56.45112)

Write the equations that result from the assumption that the appropriate mathematical model is a quadratic function y = a t^2 + b t + c.

108 = a(17)^2 + b(17) + c

66.5= a(85)^2 + b(85) + c

56.45112=a(119)^2 + b(119) + c

Eliminate c from your equations to obtain two equations in a and b.

108= 289a + 17 b + c 108= 289a + 17 b + c 66.5 = 7225a +85b +c

66.5 = 7225a +85b +c -66.5 = -7225a -85b -c -56.45112 = -14161a - 119b- c

56.45112 = 14161a + 119b + c 41.5 = -6936a - 68b 10.04888 = -6936a -34b

Solve for a and b.

41.5 = -6936a - 68b 10.04888 = -6936a -34b 41.5 = -6936a - 68b

1411 = -235824a -2312b 41.5 = -6936(.003086) - 68b

-683.32384 = 471648a - 2312b 41.5 = -21.404496 - 68b

727.68616 = 235824a 62.904496 = -68b

a = .003086 b= -.92507

108 = 289(.003086) + 17 (-.92507) + c 108 = .891854 - 15.72619 + c

122.834336 = c

Write the resulting model for temperature vs. time.

y = .003086t^2 -.92507t + 122.834336

Make a table for this function:

Time (minutes) Model Function's Prediction of Temperature

0 122.8

17 107.9 y = .003086(17)^2 - .92507(17) +122.8

34 94.9 y = .003086(34)^2 - .92507(34) +122.8

51 83.6 y = .003086(51)^2 - .92507(51) +122.8

68 74.2 y = .003086(68)^2 - .92507(68) +122.8

85 66.5 y = .003086(85)^2 - .92507(85) +122.8

102 60.5 y = .003086(102)^2 - .92507(102) +122.8

119 56.4 y = .003086(119)^2 - .92507(119) +122.8

Sketch a smooth curve representing this function on your graph.

Expand your table to include the original temperatures and the deviations of the model function for each time:

Time (minutes) Temperature (Celsius) Prediction of Model Deviation of Observed Temperature from Model

0 108 122.8 -14.8

17 97.2557 107.9 -10.6443

34 87.90224 94.9 -6.99776

51 79.75957 83.6 -3.84043

68 72.67098 74.2 -1.52902

85 66.5 66.5 0

102 61.12785 60.5 0.62785

119 56.45112 56.4 0.05112

Find the average of the deviations.

-37.13254 divided by 8 = -4.6415675

1.  If you have not already done so, obtain your own set of flow depth vs. time data as instructed in the Flow Experiment (either perform the experiment, as recommended, or E-mail the instructor for a set of data). 

Complete the modeling process for your own flow depth vs. time data.

Use your model to predict depth when clock time is 46 seconds, and the clock time when the water depth first reaches 14 centimeters.

Comment on whether the model fits the data well or not.

2.  Follow the complete modeling procedure for the two data sets below, using a quadratic model for each.  Note that your results might not be as good as with the flow model.  It is even possible that at least one of these data sets cannot be fit by a quadratic model.

Data Set 1

In a study of precalculus students, average grades were compared with the percent of classes in which the students took and reviewed class notes. The results were as follows:

Percent of Assignments Reviewed Grade Average Model

0 1.014738 1.03518 y= -.000166t^2 + .03946t + 1.03518

10 1.408518 1.41318

20 1.756831 1.75798 3 = -.000166t^2 + .03946t + 1.03518

30 2.064929 2.06958

40 2.337454 2.34798

50 2.578513 2.59318

60 2.79174 2.80518

70 2.980347 2.98398

80 3.147178 3.12958

90 3.294747 3.24198

100 3.425278 3.32118

Determine from your model the percent of classes reviewed to achieve grades of 3.0 and 4.0.

3 = -.000166t^2 + .03946t + 1.03518 4 = -.000166t^2 + .03946t + 1.03518

0 = -.000166t^2 + .03946t -1.96482 0 = -.000166t^2 + .03946t -2.96482

x=71 negative sign under the square root and not possible.

Determine also the projected grade for someone who reviews notes for 80% of the classes.

y= -.000166t^2 + .03946t + 1.03518

y= -.000166(80)^2 + .03946(80) + 1.03518

y=3.12958

Comment on how well the model fits the data.  The model may fit or it may not. The model fits the data, not too much deviation

Comment on whether or not the actual curve would look like the one you obtained, for a real class of real students.

there is a good possibilty.

Data Set 2

The following data represent the illumination of a comet by a certain star, reasonably similar to our Sun, at various distances from the star:    

Distance from Star (AU) Illumination of Comet (W/m^2)

1 1470 y=at^2 + bt + c

2 367.5

3 163.3333 y = a(1)^2 + b(1) + c y = a(5)^2 + b(5) + c y = a(10)^2 + b(10) + c

4 91.875 1470 = a + b + c 58.8 = 25a + 5b + c 14.7 = 100a + 10b + c

5 58.8

6 40.83333 -1411.2 =24a+ 4b

7 30 -44.1=75a+5b

8 22.96875 38.22 = a

9 18.14815 582.12 = b

10 14.7 849.66 = c

Obtain a model. y= 38.22t^2 - 582.12t + 2013.90

Determine from your model what illumination would be expected at 1.6 AU from the star.

y= 38.22t^2 - 582.12t + 2013.90

y= 38.22(1.6)^2 - 582.12(1.6) + 2013.90

y=1180.35

At what range of distances from the star would the illumination be comfortable for reading, if reading comfort occurs in the range from 25 to 100 Watts per square meter?

y= 38.22t^2 - 582.12t + 2013.90 y= 38.22t^2 - 582.12t + 2013.90

25= 38.22t^2 - 582.12t + 2013.90 100= 38.22t^2 - 582.12t + 2013.90

0=38.22t^2 - 582.12 + 1988.90 0=38.22t^2 - 582.12t + 1913.90

y = 10.0558 y = 10.429

Analyze how well your model fits the data and give your conclusion.  The model might fit, and it might not.  You determine whether it does or doesn't.

The model does not fit . The equations do not work with every number and as the range gets larger the AU should get

smaller, not larger.

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Your work here looks very good. Let me know if you have questions.