OpenQuery_11_Assignment

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course Mth 152

Dec 3 - 7:46pm

question: Query 11

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Question: Query 12.6.6 rnd # table to simulate 50 one-and-one foul shooting opportunities if 70% prob of success; 2 shots

Give the results of your tally.

How does your empirical probability compare with the theoretical probability?

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Your solution:

This question isn’t in my book - Chapter 12 doesn’t have a 6th section? So if there’s a table I can’t see it.

If they are one and one shots you get more shots if you make it, but if you don’t make it you don’t get more shots. There’s a 70% probability of success and we are dealing with 2 shots? If you have a 70% success probability that automatically means your failure probability is 30%.

confidence rating #$&*: 1

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Given Solution:

`aIn 1-and-1 shooting you only get a second shot if you make the first. So there are 3 possibilities:

miss the first, don't get another shot

make the first, get another shot and make it

make the first, get another shot and miss it

prob of 0 = prob of miss on first shot = .3

prob of 1 = prob of hit on first and miss on 2d = .3 * .7 = .21

prob of 2 = prob ot hit * prob of hit = .49.

'Hits' happen with 70% or .7 probability, misses with probability 30% or 3.

The theoretical probability of missing the first shot (and therefore not getting another shot, thereby scoring 0) is just

probability of miss = .30

The theoretical probability of 1 miss and 1 hit is

probability of hit * probability of miss = .7 * .3 = .21

The theoretical probability of 2 hits is

probability of hit * probability of hit = .70 * .70 = .49.

Note that these probabilities add up to .30 + .21 + .49 = 1, as they must since these three events cover all possibilities.

To use the table, randomly pick a starting point. Let numbers 1-7 correspond to making the free throw, with 8, 9 and 0 corresponding to misses. Go down the list, or across the list in an order you decided before looking at the list.

Read two digits from the list and see if they correspond to two 'hits', two 'misses' or a 'hit' and a 'miss'. Record your result as 'hit-miss', 'miss-hit', 'miss-miss' and 'hit-hit'.

Read two more digits and record your result as 'hit-miss', 'miss-hit', 'miss-miss' and 'hit-hit'.

Continue until you have the required number of results.

Tally how many times you got 0 'hits', 1 'hit', 2 'hits' etc..

Any outcome that starts with a 'miss' corresponds to zero point. 'Hit-miss' corresopnds to

1 point and 'hit-hit' corresponds to 2 points.

Determine the percent of time you got each number of points, and compare to the theoretical probabilities .30, .21 and .49. *&*& **

Self-critique: I’m really confused at how you got .3 and .21 and .49. I’m looking for this question in Chapter 12 but I can’t find it. Is there a table for it or do I merely just misunderstand the problem?

Self-critique Rating: 1

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question: Query 12.6.12 rnd walk start N then right, left or straight with prob 1/2, 1/6, 1/3; 1 st 2 columns of table

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Your solution:

Well you have:

½

1/6

1/3

Which the common denominator would be 6, so everything would change to looking at it as 6 being the whole. You end up having 3/6 as half of 6/6 or 1 and 1/6 as the same and 2/6 as a third or 1/3.

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confidence rating #$&*: 0

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Given Solution:

`aYour probabilities are given as 1/2, 1/6 and 1/3. These can all be expressed in terms of the common denominator 6:

1/2 = 3/6, 1/6 = 1/6, 1/3 = 2/6.

So a move to the right has 3 chances out of 6, a move to the left has 1 chance out of 6 and a move straight has 2 chances out of 6.

You can simulate this by letting the three digits 1, 2, 3 stand for a move to the right, the single digit 4 for a move to the left and the two digits 5, 6 for a straight move. The remaining digits 0, 7, 8, 9 don't stand for anything, and if you land on one of these numbers you just move to the next number.

So according to your the first two columns of you table, how many times do you move to the right, how many to the left, how many straight and where do you end up? **

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Self-critique (if necessary):

So 1,2 and 3 stand for moves to the right. Where are you getting the 4, 5 and 6? Are they just the next 3 numbers that can stand for moves? If so then I don’t understand how the rest stand for nothing so I guess that’s not the case.

But I’ll make a table…

Right Left No move

1 4 0

2 7

3 8

5 9

You move four times to the right, once to the left, and there are 4 questionably no meaning moves.

I am so sorry I cannot find this section in the book. I feel really bad cause this is a whole query I haven’t really done, and I’d like to do it but in my book 12.5 goes to pg 773 and there’s an extension and the test but that’s it. I’ve scanned the pages for the questions but the problem is that whenever you write the query question I know it’s condensed to and easier version to write. I don’t really know what I’m looking for.

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Self-critique Rating: 1

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Self-critique (if necessary):

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Self-critique rating:

@&

I believe the text changed section 12.6 to the 'extension' section.

I'm not sure of that, so while you're welcome to work the extension section it won't be required, and you won't be responsible for this.

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